Bangladesh caught in China-India rivalry

With nearly a million ethnic Muslims taking refuge in Bangladesh in recent months to avoid torture in Myanmar, the government in Dhaka is caught in the brinkmanship of India and China, the two nations jockeying to extend their influence in the region.

Bangladesh keeps friendly relations with both Delhi and Beijing, and expected both the nations to come to its aid when the latest Rohingya exodus flared up in August. But to its surprise, Dhaka painfully saw first China and then India side with Myanmar.

Both the Asian giants have military and economic interests in Myanmar. They are locked in a cold war over natural resource-rich and strategically important Myanmar. Russia also has cast its lot with Myanmar, saying the Rohingya problem is Yangon's internal matter.

Beijing has been pushing for preferential access to the deep-sea port in the region to deepen its links with economies throughout Asia. China plans to pitch in $10 billion in an economic zone and build a railway from the Bay of Bengal to Yunnan province via Myanmar. Delhi, on its part, is building a port in Myanmar's Rakhine state for shipping access to India's landlocked Northeast.

Popular reaction in Bangladesh to China's posture was somewhat mute. Bengalis, although they cherish China's friendship, see Beijing as a distant and cold planet. China's opposition to Bangladesh's liberation from Pakistan in 1971 still haunts Bengali minds.

India Sees Danger

But when next-door neighbor India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi backed Yangon, Dhaka burst into rage. People took to the street in solidarity with their persecuted Muslim brothers; some politicians called for armed struggle to create a Rohingya homeland, the way Bangladesh gained independence.

Bangladesh's prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, known to be overly pro-India, sensed a danger in the public mood. She risks facing electoral fire and fury in a year, if she fails to present a winning formula to help the refugees return home.

So, soon after Modi made his statement supporting Myanmar, she ordered her top diplomat in Delhi to express her dismay. In an unusual move, Syed Muazzem Ali rushed to meet with India's External Affairs Secretary S. Jaishanker on a Saturday afternoon.

Within hours, India's foreign office called for "restraint and maturity" to deal with the matter, markedly differing with Modi's earlier posture. with Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi by his side, Modi had termed the mayhem as "extremist violence" during a recent visit to Yangon.

India, which has formed a habit of copying China in every sphere in an attempt to outdo Beijing, reversed its pro-Yangon policy because of its potential to throw its ally in Bangladesh -- Sheikh Hasina -- in front a pack of howling wolves.

Sensing the danger, Sushma Swaraj, India's foreign minister, called Hasina to assure her of Delhi's support. Hasina remained miffed. She hurriedly sent her foreign secretary to Delhi early October. Shortly after, Swaraj announced her plan to visit Dhaka. Despite its billing as a routine consultative meeting, the late October trip turned out to be a fence-mending mission for Swaraj. Concluding her two-day trip, she called Bangladesh India's most favorite neighbor.

China's Strategic Moves

Beijing, on its part, has shielded Myanmar from harsh international sanctions. During the first debate in the UN Security Council in September,China defended Myanmar, saying "the question of Rakhine state is rooted in a nexus of complex historical, ethnic and religious factor."

With the crisis blowing up, China has renewed its offer to mediate. In April, China's special envoy Sun Guoxiang visited Bangladesh to help defuse a diplomatic row between Bangladesh and Myanmar over the Rohingyas.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, stepped up its initiatives to win China's support. A delegation of the ruling Awami League party, which included former Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni, has visited China to persuade the Chinese Communist Party to press Maynmar.

China's position is similar to America's during the Bangladesh independence war. When Pakistan's army slaughtered the Bengalis, Washingtonlimited its response to sending relief goods, never uttered a word to end the massacre. Washington sought to avoid offending Islamabad, becausePakistan was helping President Richard Nixon conduct his secret talks with Beijing. Exactly for similar expediency, China refuses to antagonizeMyanmar.

Beijing's role will renew Bengali distrust in China as to whether this communist nation will genuinely support them in times of distress. Dhaka remembers vividly how China sacrificed the Bengalis to pursue its strategic interests in 1971 by supporting Pakistan.

Reasons Behind Change

As China and India turned a blind eye to the plight of the Rohingyas, several Western nations cried foul over Yangon's policy. Australia, Britain andFrance urged Suu Kyi to end the violence. The United States called for a strong stance against Myanmar's military.

With international pressure mounting and Bangladesh intensifying diplomatic push, Delhi and Beijing took a step back, realizing potential perils inherent in their postures.

If New Delhi ignored Dhaka's plea for help, Bangladesh could face both political and economic meltdown, an unwelcome outcome that would hurtIndia. Bengalis would put the blames at India's footsteps and take it out on Hasina at the polling booth next year.

Bangladesh's Islamic militants, who are currently being kept under tight control through repressive state power, would gain popular backing in Muslim-majority Bangladesh by voicing their support for the Rohingyas.

Hasina could find herself in a tight corner and start wooing pro-Islamic forces to appease voters. To capture power, she did join hands with Islamic groups in the past and later threw her allies under the bulldozer to consolidate her power. She also could stop taking stern action against Indian Islamic militants seeking shelter in Bangladesh. Her cooperation with India on security matters could go into cold storage as well.

China's mediation proposal is an attempt to kill two birds with one store.  A successful outcome will help it cement its ties with Bangladesh and halt Mayanmar's slide toward the West. Hermitic and despotic Myanmar reopened to Europe and America after 2010 elections. President Obama's visit to Myanmar in 2012 caused wrinkles in Beijing.

China had stepped in with trade agreements and military sales after Western powers cut Yangon off following a student massacre in 1988. Since the elections, China discovered it was no longer Myanmar's closest ally. But Myanmar is strategically important to China. Oil and gas pipelines from the Bay of Bengal to Yunnan via Myanmar cuts supply routes from the Middle East and helps China to avoid the potentially vulnerable chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca.

Who Are Rohingyas

The Rohingyas are an ethnic Muslim minority in Myanmar. A majority of the estimated one million Rohingyas live in Rakhine, accounting for nearly a third of the population. They differ from Myanmar's dominant Buddhist groups ethnically, linguistically and religiously.

The Rohingyas trace their origins in the region to the fifteenth century, when thousands of Muslims came to the former Arakan Kingdom. Many others arrived during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when Rakhine was under British India.

The current crisis began in August after the militant Arakan Rohingya Salivation Army attacked police posts. The massive retaliation by theMyanmar armed forces triggered the exodus. In the latest wave, more than 500,000 refugees, mainly women and children, took shelter in neighboring Bangladesh. In previous major influxes in 1978 and 1991, Myanmar took back most of the refugees under Chinese and U.S. pressure.

How quickly the present situation can blow into a quagmire was evident last month. Led by an Islamic group, thousands of people took to the street in Bangladesh's second largest city near the Myanmar border.

The crisis resembles the problem Delhi faced when Pakistan's army killed and raped ethnic Bengalis in East Pakistan in 1971, forcing 10 million people to flee to India. India initially demanded Pakistan restore normalcy and repatriate its citizens. Later it figured out the refugees were unlikely to return because they feared persecution. India eventually helped create Bangladesh.

Bangladesh will not support a Rohingya homeland. However, Suu Kyi has inflamed rather than calmed the situation. Her office called the refugees as "Bengali terrorists." Myanmar won't allow all those who fled to return. Bangladesh remains adamant to send them back.

Concerted world action

To resolve this complex dilemma the world must act in concert. Myanmar has clearly learned the tricks from Sri Lanka and is cleverly using India-China rivalry to its advantage. China and India must find common ground to change Myanmar's attitude.

Until now, Delhi left Bangladesh's views out of its Myanmar equation. Dhaka so far has handled the problem with Myanmar bilaterally. But with the recent massive exodus, Bangladesh has come to realize that Myanmar needs hard knocks to budge this time around.

The sheer number of the refugees and the severity of their plight make the situation this time more complex than before.  Bangladesh is pressing to create a safe zone inside Myanmar for the refugees. Dhaka wants India, Germany, the United Nations and the Red Cross to set up this zone. There is a good chance the displaced people would return home if Myanmar grants them citizenship and ensures their safety, as proposed by a commission led by former UN chief Kofi Annan. If recent moves at the United Nations are any indication, world leaders seem to have their act together on this issue.