Why Sudden Militant Upsurge in Syria?

For around 425 days, Gaza has bled, due to attacks from Israel in the wake of October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Israel has killed around 50,000 Palestinians, and throughout this time, Turk President Taiyyip Erdogan, has only stood by the rings. Before, Erdogan's present role is deliberated, it is necessary to recount his stand, during the 11 days war between Israel and Hamas of 2021. It had ended after 232 Palestinians were killed. During those 11 days US President Joseph Biden had called Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu eight times, until the ceasefire was called, after Russia's President Vladimir Putin, had called Israel ambassador Alexander Ben Zvi to Moscow on a firing-line. No one changed. Israel, US, Russia, Hamas and Erdogan-all remain the same! 

The would-be La Muslim Caliph, Taiyyip Erdogan, who was to reclaim the erstwhile mantle, after 100 years and also take-back Palestine, had then stood mute, even when Al Aqsa mosque, the third most revered Islamic site was attacked. Malayasia had then decided to send troops, but Erdogan remained silent! I am compelled to refer to an article I wrote in Counterview.in 1 in 2021, that it was time Erdogan was nominated for Oscars, for the best acting award. All the portents have now come true, albeit now in its gravest reality! Erdogan has turned out to be the biggest villain in the last century. For the whole more than an year he just upped his ante against Israel, while Turkey continued with its military supplies to Israel. The Arab nations also came to the rescue of Israel. Jordon, Egypt, UAE and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, initially did some lip-service against Israel, but later deserted even that. Iran came out unequivocally in Hamas support. Israel-Hezbollah war also broke in Lebanon after one year on October 10. Israel was attacked due to support from Iran to Hezbollah, in Yemen from Ansar-ul-Lah and Bashar Al Asad in Syria. Iran is supported by Russia. Israel and Iran have also attacked each other, in the last few months. 

In the same midst, an altogether new situation has developed, as no sooner the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, was announced on November 27, though hugely violated by Israel, thousands of ISIS-2 aka Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) members, galvanized as 'rebels' by Western media, have entered from Turkey into Syria to oust President Basshar Al Asad, an ally of Russia and Iran in the region. Basshar Al Asad rushed to Russia and Putin, confirmed Russia's unstinted support to Asad regime. There are reports, that Turkey trained ISIS-2 members are now to meet fighters from Yemen, Iran and Iraq. ISIS-2  has taken over cities like Aleppo, Hama and are reportedly heading for Damascus. Prisoners inside Syria jails have been set free. This could never have happened until there had been a tacit, if not an open, support to ISIS-2, from inside the Syrian army. 

Why has this new war broken up? ISIS-2 was to have fought to the crying Palestinians, but chose to drag down Asad? No wonder, US Israel and Turkey are now on the same side. Perhaps, Turkey has been assured to remain inside NATO, by US or else why has Erdogan taken this nosedive? It is also worth to remember that the Crocus Mall massacre in Russia, in which 145 people were killed, 550 were wounded-the killers were Tajiks/Uzbeks 2, and had come from Turkey. Russia which is at war with Ukraine since 2022, is understandably now, quite averse to Turkey.  In fact, Russia had turned down Turkish offer to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukraine, as Turkey has been supplying arms to Ukraine and had lost its even handedness or neutrality, to broker any truce. 

No wonder, the development of Syria into a new war theatre is solely due to Russia, as the prime target of Israel, Ukraine, Turkey and US. Syria has been the 'road and route' of all the Russian military supplies to Hezbollah, which Israel could not afford, hence, Israel has taken a lull after ceasefire , and given this ultimate surprise to the forces led by Iran and Russia. Iran has throughout the Ukraine war stood by Russia. 

To order to oust Russia and Iran, Turkey has come forward to facilitate this new Israel gameplan! Despite the fact, that the same Erdogan, had recently warned that, in fact, Hamas has fought the war for Turkey, as the next obvious Israel target is to be Anatolia. Israel, with all the wherewithal of unaccounted US money and military warfare supplies, yet  had to acknowledge to have lost 800 soldiers in the war with Hamas, informs Israeli news Ynetnews 2. This is of course a downsized figure but too much by the Israel standards. Israel knows it well that unless Syria is dismembered and Russian military and naval bases inside it, are bombed, its dream for the final annihilation of Iran is not possible. What if Damascus falls, which is also likely, Bashar Al Asad will flee, but inside Syria are stakes of Russia. Russia presence has to be erased for Israel to maneuver its goals. Russian absence from Syrian Golan heights will make a cakewalk for Israel to take ultimate control on Syrian oil and gas and also its waters. The next obvious scenario is an all out war between Iran led militias and ISIS-2. But, once, if Iran presence is obliterated and all Russian defense system is uprooted, Israel will pound with its F-35 stealth fighter jets on the same ISIS-2. 

Iraq PM Muhammed Sudani has warned Erdogan. Iraqi militias will also enter the battleground. US has also started its strikes on pro-Asad forces, Russian jets now target anti-Asad ISIS-2, Iranian Foreign Minister has threatened Turkey, Iranian 'glide bombs' and drones have landed in Syria. It is now only a matter of days, that Israel forces will also enter Syria, and will bomb Syria with the same veritable ease it bombs Gaza-to the glee of the outgoing US President Joseph Biden. But, the way Syrian army has accorded 'welcome' to ISIS-2, is a stunning example that it supports Israel. Interestingly, ISIS (or its latest avatar), has never ever targeted Israel, since the Syrian conflict in 2011, which began after Arab Spring had hit the 'Kingdoms and Oligarchs' of the Arab world. 

Where the flames of Syria are to go is to be seen, but the fate of Turkey has been sealed. It has lost its all takers.  The skeptics can predict a Russia and Iran war with Turkey. Yemen has already targeted a Turkish ship on way to Israel. US Defence Secretary Antony Blinken says Russia to have provided the satellite data to Yemen. Turkey even wants to 'do-way' from Russian S-400 Defense System in exchange of US F-35. Hamas is said to have shifted to Turkey, which Turkey has denied as that would invite Israel attacks inside Turkey. 

The personal script of Erdogan is gone. His party is on a downslide after the loss in local elections. Is Turkey not aware that the new Israel Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, in one of first addresses, has called to support Kurdish aspirations, along with other minorities in the region! Turkey has long been bogged down by PKK , who are now to be provided with new logistics against Turkey.  Who will support Turkey? Islamic or Arab nations ? None, as no one had come to support Hamas. Israel Finance Minister Smotrich, has already put the blue-print as to how 'bit by bit', Israel will take over the Muslim nations 4.  Erdogan also does not have a personal rapport with US President elect Donald Trump, who had made Turkish Lira go into a historic decline 6 .   

How will Russia situate itself in Syria, even when after Asad regime is gone, is yet to come out, but, the geo-strategists can now easily aver that this is now not to remain confined to Syria alone. If Russia looses, then Iran will also loose, and if Russia wins, the tide will go into Israel. Russia and Iran versus Israel is also the next immediate scenario too. This will automatically invite Israel biggest ally US into war, despite the announcement from President Elect Trump that he would end the wars and not start a new one. 

Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine after it had been bombed by 'Storm Shadow' missiles provided to Ukraine by Britain.  EU and NATO are in absolute support of Ukraine. What will happen next? Perhaps, the world is slated towards more chaos. The latest to add, is that as per US intelligence agencies, reported Reuters 7, that Hezbollah has renewed its recruitment drive for fresh fighters, and has been getting new-level-weapons from Russia. The war is therefore to stay. The world is now on the verge of Third World War.  

• The writer is a former State Information Commissioner of the Indian state of Utter Pradesh. He writes on international affairs.

References: 1- https://www.counterview.in/2021/05/russia-china-to-call-shots-in-middle.html2-  https://www.rferl.org/a/crocus-city-terrorist-act-five-names-indentification/33098296.html3-https://www.ynetnews.com/magazine/article/r1io9esfje4- https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-foreign-minister-calls-kurds-minorities5-https://www.reddit.com/r/AskMiddleEast/comments/1g0aiu8/jordan_lebanon_egypt_syria_iraq_and_saudi_arabia/6- https://www.icbcstandardbank.com/icbc/en/newsupdates/financialnews/foreignexchange/TurkishliraDeclinestoHistoricLowAgainstUSDollarNov18.htm7-https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/