Rebel Advance in Syria Secures Israel’s Backyard

Terror gangs under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), jumping off from their territory in the northwestern Idlib province, have sliced through embattled Syrian army and entered Aleppo in a surprise coordinated attack as 14 month long devastating war in neighbouring Gaza rages on with no end in sight.

Al Qaeda affiliated HTS had remained in control of Idlib province for years under Turkish protection and in the latest push group has reached the center of Aleppo, reports said Saturday. Syrian army had only taken Aleppo back from rebels in a battle during the summer of 2016 with the help of Lebanese Hezbollah.

The operations were launched with meticulous coordination among different factions of Islamist groups, focusing on strategic targets. Although the timing of the attacks was unexpected, evidence suggests that preparations had been underway for months, bolstered by advanced weaponry.

Armed drones and other sophisticated tools played a pivotal role, enabling rebels to secure rapid territorial gains into Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city.

Notably, the operations set aside internal factional disputes, presenting a rare display of unified military coordination.

The Syrian military said it was "confronting terrorist organizations" and claimed to have inflicted "heavy losses" on the groups since Wednesday

Some analysts describe Aleppo offensive nearly the equivalent of October 7 for Israel. "But Syria has none of the advantages that Israel enjoyed in stabilizing the situation after the attack, going on the offensive, and pulverizing Hamas," wrote Steven Simon in 'Responsible Statecraft'. 

"Although there are rumors of Russian airstrikes against rebels, the fact is that the Russians are stretched thin by their war against Ukraine and will find it hard to maintain support for Damascus. And there will be little help from either Iran or Lebanese Hezbollah. Tehran lacks the means and whatever it can muster will be in Israel's gunsights very quickly. And Hezbollah is reeling from Israel's recent offensive and couldn't mobilize the fighters needed to get heavily equipped Al Qaeda affiliates out of Aleppo let alone reach Aleppo on the ground", according to Simon.

The surprise Al-Qaeda offensive came after series of Israeli strikes on Syria just before a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect Wednesday morning.

Former Israeli intelligence official and advisor on Arab affairs Avi Melamed said frequent Israeli air strikes on Iran-controlled forces and bases in Syria will not stop even after the recent ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since 2017, Israel has conducted hundreds of air strikes to contain Iran's presence and shipment of arms to Hezbollah.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a press conference Wednesday night that Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime would pay for aiding Hezbollah signifying Israel frustration with government in Damascus.

Observers believe that shifting Israeli focus on Syria means Damascus has refused to snap supply link from Iran to Beirut. 

In his speech on the eve of ceasefire with Hezbollah Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that Bashar Assad was "playing with fire," citing its continued military support for Hezbollah.

Significantly senior Iranian military adviser in Syria, Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi,was killed in Aleppo on the eve of rebel offensive. General Kioumars was senior most Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander to die in rebel attack in recent years. More than 500 Iranian military commanders have been killed in Syria so far many of them in Israeli raids.

The killing of Iranian general this week underscores continued Iranian presence in the Arab country which it considers crucial part of axis and a lifeline for Hezbollah and other resistance groups.

Syrian link attains more significance to replenish Hezbollah which has been battered by a ferocious Israeli aerial and ground campaign in Lebanon after it decided to join war against Israel in support of Gaza. Hezbollah which was credited for helping foil plans to topple friendly Syrian government, is now significantly weakened, with most of its leaders assassinated.

In a call with his Syrian counterpart to discuss the escalation, the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States and Israel of "reactivating" the rebels, and stressed the continued support of Iran to the Syrian government and army.

Analysts say the rebels are using a vacuum left by a weakened Hezbollah to advance in Syria.

"The rebels see an opportunity to test the front lines with Hezbollah weakened, a pressured Iran and a Russia busy with Ukraine," according to Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Iran and Russia have for more than a decade supplied forces and arms to help Syrian government to deal with terror funded and supported by West and its local allies. Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan has supported rebel groups and has deployed Turkish forces to retain command over the rebel-held strongholds of northern Syria.

Shifting balance of power

According to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi the flare-up in Syria was part of a US and Israeli "plan to disrupt the stability and security of the region."

These developments indicate that the Syrian conflict may be entering a new phase of escalation. The rebel offensive may act as a leverage to potentially compell President Assad and his allies to reconsider their military and political strategies.

Israel's Last Laugh

Analysts say that rebel advance in Syria has opened many gates of dividends for Israel. A report said Israeli intelligence was gauging the regional ramifications, and the potential domino effect of rebel advances could trigger across the Middle East. Long term goal is to break Axis of Resistance developed as a unity of fronts strategy to engulf Israel.

One scenario under consideration, according to the Jerusalem Post, involves Hezbollah moving forces and weaponry from Israeli border to Syria to bolster Assad government.

Israel's TV Channel 12 quoting intelligence officials reported Friday night that "Iranian infrastructure in Syria has taken a major hit, and much of it has been captured by the rebels."

As Hezbollah may now be forced to rush to the aid of Syria this in turn, will relieve Israel of major worry on its northern border where it struggles to relocate tens of thousands of citizens displaced by Hezbollah fire over past 14 months.

As regards Syrian territory itself, where the IDF has been working to prevent the transfer of weaponry to Hezbollah and to thwart direct threats from pro-Iranian forces, Israel's "freedom of military operation will apparently widen now," Channel 12 reported.