​India's China Embrace Puts US on Alert

Everybody is looking to benefit from the India-United States standoff. The Trump-Modi rift has also caught the fancy of Indian-American and Trump's "Republican colleague" Nikki Haley, who was Trump's United Nations ambassador until they parted ways -- Haley choosing instead to launch a presidential run of her own, against, of all people, Trump himself!

Of course, she never stood a chance against the MAGA wave, and Trump left her straggling, if not struggling. Nikki Haley is one of the reasons why Trump stopped trusting Indians -- except those who clung to Trump's apron strings. Haley broke away once she decided she was the "better man" for the presidential honour than Donald Trump would ever be, at least not in this lifetime.

Now, Haley sees opportunity in the India-United States tariff-induced rift triggered by Trump's urge to be the "best American POTUS and dictator" in 200 years. How could Haley allow that? Trump, however, does not trust Haley. For Trump, every "Indian" is a mean Hindu, a view reportedly fed to him by Field Marshal Asim Munir -- a sorry caricature of the average Indian.

When Trump looks at an Indian-American, he sees Nikki Haley, who took his crumbs and then mounted a campaign against him. Did Nikki Haley become the ogre at the top of the beanstalk? Haley is fishing in Trump's troubled waters, muddying them further. Her friends in the military-industrial complex never liked Trump in the first place.

Haley sees opportunity. "India must be the prized free and democratic partner that it is -- not an adversary like China, which has thus far avoided sanctions for its Russian oil purchases, despite being one of Moscow's largest customers," Haley wrote in an op-ed in Newsweek. The former UN ambassador is suddenly a "born again Indian," full of love and romance for India, while condemning Trump's punitive tariffs.

Nikki Haley's words carry weight in both Democratic and Republican circles. Towards the end of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, she was even hailed as a better presidential pick than Trump himself. The sort of person Trump is, he must have concluded there is no Indian or Indian-American worth the attention Nikki Haley received.

Haley would never think of becoming a mediator between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. She will never again get access to the Oval Office as long as Donald Trump remains U.S. President. For Trump, Nikki Haley is persona non grata. By speaking for India and laying the blame for the India-US fallout on Trump, Haley has further alienated the Trump administration and made Trump even more anti-India.

Nikki Haley isn't the great ambassador India should have in its corner. She would only add to the rancour Trump already harbours for India. Nobody ever thought Nikki Haley was a friend of India to begin with. Stories abound of her dislike for India and "Indianness." Haley abandoned Sikhism, embraced Christianity, and even her Sikh name was a casualty.

Recalling Haley's maiden Indian name is a gargantuan memory test -- one even Dr. Ben Carson, Trump's loyalist, would struggle with. Unlike Carson, Haley turned "un-Trumpist." She will never be accepted by Trump or by MAGA loyalists shaping Trump's India-centric tariffs. Nikki Haley will only add to the chaos.

Truth is, Nikki Haley has few friends among Indian-Americans. She is more "USA first" than Trump ever was, and remains democratic at heart. Haley cannot be Trump's conduit to the Nobel committee, not even if offered a prized post in his administration. Trump's tariffs are not going away for as long as Haley continues talking against him.

There are ways to intervene in a battle between adversaries, but this isn't one. Trump will keep Haley at barge-pole distance. His estimation of Nikki Haley lies at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. India will gain nothing diplomatically from courting her. Haley has no traction with Trump's administration.

The brash U.S. President hasn't reacted to Haley's uninvited advice -- unsurprising to Modi and India's Ministry of External Affairs. Nikki Haley is not a "self-acclimatized friend" of India. Her chess moves cannot checkmate Trump any more than anyone else's. Haley is playing the "China Card," warning both Indians and Americans that Trump's tariffs risk pushing India into the Russia-China camp.

Haley says Washington-New Delhi ties are near "disaster" and "breaking point," as if Trump were oblivious. She argues it is "critical to get relations between the U.S. and India back on track." But her words haven't caught fire. Essentially, she wants India coddled so China remains contained. That doesn't make her a credible negotiator between India and the U.S.

The Newsweek op-ed proves Haley doesn't know how to broker peace. Trump fancies himself the "world's best dealmaker" -- after all, he wrote The Art of the Deal. Haley cannot play dealmaker in Trump or Modi's league.

Haley should also know it is Modi and India pushing to get closer to China, not the other way around. If the U.S. gets alienated in the process, so be it. Vladimir Putin is also aligned with India and China. Trying to split the two Asian powers won't work.

In her op-ed, Haley insisted India must not be treated like China, and that Trump's administration still had time to "drive a wedge" between China and India. She hinted her military-industrial complex allies would benefit if the India-Russia-China axis were tested. Russia supplies arms to India, and India buys Russian oil.

"To achieve the Trump administration's foreign policy goals -- outcompeting China and achieving peace through strength -- few objectives are more critical than getting U.S.-India relations back on track," Haley wrote. "India must be treated like the prized free and democratic partner that it is -- not an adversary like China, which has thus far avoided sanctions for its Russian oil purchases."

Haley drove the nail deeper by warning: "Scuttling 25 years of momentum with the only country that can serve as a counterweight to Chinese dominance in Asia would be a strategic disaster." She also reminded India that it is "critical" to U.S. supply-chain diversification away from China.

"While the Trump administration works to bring manufacturing back to our shores, India stands alone in its potential to manufacture at a China-like scale for products that can't be quickly or efficiently produced here, like textiles, inexpensive phones, and solar panels," she wrote.

For Modi, such words may be flattering, but for Trump they are alienating.

The question remains: What does Nikki Haley want -- an India-China detente, or an Indo-U.S. breakdown?

"Simply put, China's ambitions will have to shrink as India's power grows. Yet, unlike Communist-controlled China, the rise of a democratic India does not threaten the free world," Nimarata Nikki Randhawa Haley concluded.  (IPA Service)